A dearth of Londoners

Just reading Mark Huberty on 17th-century London coal consumption, I was struck by the following:

Nevertheless, the data present an empirical puzzle. In 1600, London appears to have imported around 200,000 tons of of coal per annum for a population of approximately 100,000 people. In 1700, it imported around 500,000 tons for 500,000 people. In per capita terms, then, coal consumption appears to have fallen.

I think I can clear this up. I know of no estimate that puts London's population as low as 100,000 in 1600: the baptisms recorded in the Bills of Mortality indicate a minimum of 180,000 even before allowance for unrecorded births (my own preference is for something rather higher given rapid English population growth in 1500-1650 and near-stagnation in 1650-1730 coupled with a generally-accepted London population of 350,000 c.1650). To reach a population of 100,000 you probably have to go back at least to the 1550s. So it's likely that per capita consumption during the 17th century either remained stable or rose slightly (shipments in 1600 were probably rather under than over 200,000 tons and in 1700 conversely somewhat over 500,000 tons). So there's a definite slowing from the high per capita growth rates of the late 16th century - possibly related in part to movement of industry - but no significant drop in the absolute level of demand per head.

I think it's probably correct to say that the Fire of 1666 had little effect on London-wide take-up per capita: the coal data support the impression of slow growth in the late 17th-early 18th centuries, but beyond the exceptional impact of the 1665 Plague this is probably related to demographic developments not unique to London (as one would expect given the limited area affected by the conflagration). The already large volume of shipments does support the suggestion that coal use was the norm by the early 17th century, while the growth of shipments implies that this was a recent development (perhaps most marked in the quarter-century after 1580) associated with the metropolis's rapid expansion: indeed one might speculate whether that expansion would have been possible without the new wonder-fuel from the north given the prior claim of the south-east's million or so rural & small-town inhabitants to the region's stretched woodfuel resources.